RFA Breakfast Paper - October 2, 2026
Egypt’s Private Sector Activity Deteriorates as Geopolitical and Cost Pressures Intensify
The S&P Global Egypt PMI fell to 47.2 in September 2026 from 49.6 in August, signaling a renewed and sharper deterioration in non-oil private-sector conditions. Output and new orders declined markedly as weaker demand, geopolitical disruptions and elevated inflationary pressures weighed on business activities. Purchasing activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month and inventories fell for a third month as firms reduced input purchases. Employment nevertheless increased for a second straight month, marking the first consecutive rise in payrolls in more than a year. Cost pressures remained elevated, driven by higher oil, metals, electricity and transportation costs, prompting firms to raise selling prices sharply despite a modest easing in output-price inflation. Business confidence remained positive but weakened from August’s more than four-year high as firms became more concerned about weaker demand and persistent geopolitical risks. Overall, the September reading points to renewed weakness in private-sector growth alongside continued cost pressures, complicating the outlook for both activity and disinflation.
U.S. Equity Markets Rise as Oil Prices Ease on Hormuz Outlook
U.S. equity markets closed higher on Friday as Treasury yields stabilized and oil prices declined, helping ease pressure on risk assets. Durable goods orders were unchanged in August, while core capital goods orders rose 1.6% month-on-month, pointing to continued strength in underlying business investment. Oil prices also fell amid reports that Iran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations with the U.S., raising hopes of reduced geopolitical pressure on energy markets. Lower oil prices also provided some relief to Treasury markets after a volatile week that pushed the 10-year yield to its highest level since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield closed slightly lower at 5.17%, while the 2-year yield fell to 4.85%. The easing in yields and oil prices supported Friday’s gains, although borrowing costs remained elevated and continued to pose a key consideration for equity markets.
NGX Closes Friday Lower but Posts Weekly Gain
The Nigerian equity market closed the week marginally lower, with the NGX-ASI and Market Capitalization both declining 0.01%. Profit-taking in selected recently appreciated mid-cap and blue-chip stocks outweighed the broader strength, despite advancers outnumbering decliners. The NGX-ASI fell 36.60 basis points to close at 252,113.41, while Market Capitalization declined by ₦23.77 billion to ₦163.66 trillion.
Despite the negative Friday close, the market maintained a positive week-on-week performance, with the NGX-ASI gaining 0.92% and investors’ wealth increasing by approximately ₦1.50 trillion. Trading volume fell 27.54%, while value traded rose 16.31%, with 708.85 million units worth ₦58.35 billion exchanged across 42,496 deals. Sector performance was mixed, as Insurance, Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods posted marginal gains, while Banking and Oil & Gas declined.
