RFA Breakfast Paper - October 8, 2026

SA Factory Output Slumps 4.3% in August

South Africa's manufacturing production fell 4.3% year-on-year in August, reversing a 1.1% gain in July and well short of the 0.9% rise forecast, according to Statistics South Africa. On a monthly basis, output contracted 3.1% after a 2.2% increase in July. The decline was broad-based: petroleum, chemicals, rubber and plastics fell 5.0%, motor vehicles and transport equipment 8.8%, wood, paper and printing 7.0%, and both food and beverages and basic metals 3.0%. The print lands two weeks after the South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25bps to 7.25% to contain fuel-driven inflation, which reached 4.4% in August and is expected to move above 5% later this year. With the SARB having already cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%, weaker factory output sharpens the trade-off between inflation control and growth, a headwind for rand assets and South African credit.

AI Revenue Doubts Drag Nasdaq Down 1.25%

U.S. technology stocks sold off after the Financial Times reported OpenAI's annualised revenue was close to $50 billion at end-September, below earlier estimates of $70 billion, reviving doubts over returns on AI spending. The Nasdaq fell 1.25% and the S&P 500 0.47%, while the Dow edged up 0.10%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index lost 3.39%, with Micron (-4.79%), Broadcom (-4.35%) and Nvidia (-2.94%) lower; Apple rose 1.11%. Fed Governor Waller said further hikes are still needed, though the 10-year yield eased to about 5.22%.

Aradel Sell-off Drags NGX Down 0.82%

The NGX All-Share Index fell 0.82% to 248,042.50, a seventh consecutive decline, erasing ₦1.33 trillion to leave market capitalisation at ₦161.05 trillion. Oil and gas heavyweights led the sell-off, with Aradel Holdings and Eterna both down by the 10% daily limit, pulling the NGX Oil/Gas Index 3.87% lower. MTN Nigeria (-3.54%), Fidelity Bank (-4.96%) and UBA (-1.12%) added pressure, while the Banking Index slipped 0.18%; Consumer Goods (+0.08%) was the only sector to gain. eTranzact (+10.00%) and Livestock Feeds (+9.09%) led gainers. Volume rose 10.1% to 492.14 million shares across 38,644 deals.