RFA Breakfast Paper - May 5, 2026
Egypt PMI Drops to 46.6, Fastest Contraction Since 2023
The S&P Global PMI for Egypt fell sharply to 46.6 in April 2026 from 48.0 in March, marking the steepest contraction since January 2023 and signaling a broad deterioration in non-oil private sector conditions. Both output and new orders declined significantly, weighed down by persistent cost pressures and weak demand. Input costs surged at the fastest pace since January 2023, driven by higher fuel and material prices linked to Middle East tensions. In response, firms cut purchasing activity and reduced headcount to manage rising costs. Demand weakness was widespread, particularly in manufacturing and wholesale & retail, leading to a sharp contraction in order books and lower output. Despite softer demand, selling prices rose at the fastest pace since August 2024 as firms passed through higher costs. Looking ahead, business confidence remained subdued, reflecting cautious expectations for future output amid ongoing cost pressures and fragile demand conditions.
U.S. Equities Rise as Middle East Tensions Ease and Broad-Based Gains Lift Sentiment
U.S. equities closed higher on Tuesday as investor sentiment improved on signs that Middle East tensions failed to escalate further, particularly following earlier military developments involving Iran that had unsettled markets. Oil prices moved lower as geopolitical risk premiums eased, reinforcing the constructive tone across risk assets. Market leadership was broad-based, with all 11 S&P 500 sectors ending the session in positive territory, led by strength in technology and materials, underscoring a synchronized risk-on move across cyclical and growth segments. On the macroeconomic front, data releases pointed to a stable but moderating growth environment. March JOLTS job openings held steady at approximately 6.9 million, indicating continued resilience in labor demand, while the ISM services PMI eased slightly to 53.6 signaling ongoing expansion in the services sector. In fixed income, Treasury yields edged lower as demand for safer assets persisted, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.43% and the 2-year at 3.94%, reflecting a modest shift in rate expectations amid balanced economic signals.
NGX Declines as Profit-Taking Pressures Weigh on Market Performance
The Nigerian equity market reversed course today, closing in negative territory as sustained profit-taking weighed heavily on key sectors. Investors trimmed positions in blue-chip and mid-cap names, particularly within the Oil & Gas and Banking sectors, which drove the broader market decline. As a result, the All-Share Index shed 1,408.82 points, falling by 0.58% to settle at 241,750.15, while market capitalization declined by ₦904.40 billion to close at ₦155.15 trillion. The downturn reflects a cautious tone among market participants, as recent gains prompted selective sell-offs in fundamentally strong but recently appreciated stocks. Despite the bearish close, trading activity strengthened notably, signalling sustained investor engagement. Sectoral performance, meanwhile, painted a more nuanced picture, as three of the five major sectors posted gains. The Industrial Goods sector led the advance with a 2.49% increase, followed by Insurance (+0.94%) and Consumer Goods (+0.40%), suggesting pockets of resilience and rotation into defensive and growth-aligned plays. However, declines in Oil & Gas (-2.91%) and Banking (-1.22%) ultimately outweighed these gains, anchoring the market in negative territory
