RFA Breakfast Paper - July 10, 2026

Brent Rallies as Renewed US-Iran Clashes Revive Supply Concerns

Brent crude futures climbed about 4% to around $79 per barrel on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak after renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran reignited concerns over global oil supplies. The US launched its fourth air strike in a week against Iran on Sunday in response to an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship, further escalating tensions in the region. Tehran subsequently declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed "until further notice," although the claim was rejected by US Central Command. The renewed hostilities have reversed part of the sharp decline in oil prices seen after the interim US-Iran peace agreement, which had raised expectations of increased Middle Eastern crude exports and a reopening of the strategic shipping route. The latest escalation has also diminished hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, with Iran insisting that Washington must first honor previous commitments regarding Hormuz transit and the normalization of Iranian oil exports before negotiations can resume. As a result, geopolitical risk has once again become the dominant driver of oil markets, supporting prices amid renewed fears of supply disruptions.

U.S. Equity Markets Close Higher as Investors Await Key Economic Data and Earnings

U.S. equities closed higher on Friday as investors shifted their focus from geopolitical developments to a busy week of economic data and corporate earnings. Market sentiment remained cautiously optimistic ahead of June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the start of the second-quarter earnings season, led by major U.S. banks. Communication services and materials outperformed, while health care was the only S&P 500 sector to end the session lower, reflecting selective buying as investors prepared for key market catalysts. Treasury yields were little changed, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ending at 4.56% and the 2-year yield at 4.20%, indicating a wait-and-see approach ahead of this week's releases. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran remained on investors' radar, but the lack of further escalation helped keep WTI crude oil steady below $72 per barrel. This week's inflation report and bank earnings are expected to provide fresh insight into the health of the U.S. economy, corporate profitability, and the Federal Reserve's interest-rate outlook, making them the primary drivers of market sentiment in the days ahead.

NGX Closes the Week Lower as Investors Lock in Gains

The Nigerian equity market closed the week slightly lower, snapping its five-session winning streak as mild profit-taking in medium-cap stocks weighed on investor sentiment. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) declined by 159.97 basis points, or 0.07%, to close at 243,798.76, while market capitalization shed ₦102.65 billion to ₦156.45 trillion. Despite the modest pullback, the market delivered a strong weekly performance, with the NGX-ASI advancing 6.35% and investors' wealth increasing by approximately ₦9.3 trillion, reflecting sustained buying interest throughout the week. Trading activity moderated sharply, with total trading volume declining by 73.36% to 441.27 million shares, while the value of transactions fell 82.67% to ₦19.40 billion across 44,938 deals. The lighter trading activity suggests investors adopted a more cautious stance after the week's strong rally, although the limited decline indicates underlying market sentiment remained broadly constructive.