RFA Breakfast Paper - May 25, 2026
Nigeria Q1 Growth Slows Slightly as Oil Sector Weakens
The economy of Nigeria expanded by 3.89% year-on-year in Q1 2026, easing from 4.07% in Q4 2025, as slower growth in the oil sector offset continued resilience in non-oil activities. Growth in the crucial oil sector slowed sharply to 2.57% from 6.79%, with average crude oil production falling to 1.55 million barrels per day, below both the 1.62 million bpd recorded a year earlier and 1.58 million bpd in Q4 2025. The decline was attributed to factors including aging infrastructure and persistent oil theft. Meanwhile, the non-oil sector remained relatively strong, expanding 3.94%, supported by gains across services, industry, and agriculture. The services sector grew 4.31%, driven by strong performances in information & communication (10.98%), financial & insurance (8.54%), and transportation & storage (7.41%). Industrial activity also remained supportive, with manufacturing rising 3.29%, boosted by a sharp 37.46% surge in oil refining and an 11.53% increase in cement production, highlighting improving domestic industrial capacity despite broader macroeconomic challenges.
Markets Monitor Rising U.S.-Iran Tensions Amid Ongoing Diplomatic Talks
Markets monitored ongoing developments surrounding U.S.-Iran tensions, as diplomatic negotiations and military operations unfolded simultaneously. President Donald Trump stated that Iran’s enriched uranium would either be surrendered to the U.S. for destruction or eliminated under international supervision, even as the administration maintained that negotiations were progressing positively. However, geopolitical uncertainty remained elevated after U.S. forces reportedly carried out “self-defence” strikes in southern Iran targeting missile launch sites and vessels linked to mine deployment activities. Meanwhile, diplomatic engagement continued through regional intermediaries, with Iranian officials holding discussions in Doha alongside Qatari leadership over a potential framework agreement with Washington. The mixed signals from both diplomacy and military activity kept investors focused on the potential implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and broader market sentiment.
Nigerian Equities Start the Week Strong as Buying Interest Accelerates
The The Nigerian equity market opened the week on a bullish note, with the NGX All-Share Index and market capitalization both advancing by 0.57% as investors increased positioning ahead of corporate actions. Positive sentiment dominated trading, supported by bargain hunting and renewed buying interest in mid-cap and blue-chip stocks. Consequently, the NGX-ASI gained 1,412.65 basis points to close at 251,125.02, while market capitalization rose by ₦905.57 billion to settle at ₦160.98 trillion. Trading activity was mixed during the session, as total volume traded declined by 11.58%, while total transaction value surged by 40.67%, reflecting stronger participation in higher-value trades. Investors exchanged approximately 629.42 million shares worth ₦40.91 billion across 82,434 deals. The strong start to the week highlighted improving investor confidence and sustained demand for fundamentally attractive stocks in the Nigerian market.
