RFA Breakfast Paper - May 1, 2026
Brent Near $108 as Diplomacy Hopes Offset Supply Risks
Brent crude hovered around $108 per barrel after two days of losses, as signs of easing tensions between the United States and Iran tempered supply concerns. President Donald Trump announced plans to “free” stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz through a new initiative, Project Freedom, aimed at helping neutral civilian ships resume operations starting Monday. At the same time, Iran signaled it is reviewing Washington’s response to its latest proposal, raising cautious optimism for a diplomatic breakthrough. Despite this, oil prices remain elevated amid the prolonged disruption in the Strait, a key route for global energy flows. On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed to a symbolic increase in June output quotas, indicating a steady policy stance even after the United Arab Emirates exited the group, suggesting limited near-term relief to tight market conditions.
U.S. Equities Hit Record Highs as Rally Extends into May
U.S. equities kicked off May on a strong note, extending April’s rally and pushing major indices to fresh record highs. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% to a new peak, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%, supported by continued strength in the technology sector. In commodities, WTI crude oil prices declined slightly on reports of renewed diplomatic engagement involving Iran, although prices remain elevated at $102 per barrel. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield held steady at 4.38%, gold prices were largely unchanged around $4,600 per ounce, and the U.S. dollar continued to weaken against major currencies, reversing gains recorded earlier in the year. Investor sentiment remains supported by improving expectations around economic resilience and corporate earnings. Recent data suggests the U.S. economy continues to withstand higher energy prices, while earnings growth has exceeded expectations, reinforcing confidence in the market outlook. Attention now shifts to upcoming labor market data, with forecasts pointing to moderate payroll growth consistent with stable employment conditions. Overall, while elevated oil prices present some downside risks, the combination of solid growth and strong earnings continues to underpin the bullish momentum in U.S. equities.
Nigerian Equities End April on a Positive Note
The Nigerian equities market wrapped up April on a firm note, with sustained buying interest pushing key benchmarks higher and reinforcing a positive market tone. The NGX All-Share Index advanced by 2.14% in the latest session, gaining 5,072.22 basis points to settle at 242,277.81, while market capitalization rose in tandem by ₦3.27 trillion to close at ₦155.99 trillion. This upward momentum capped a strong weekly performance, as the index climbed 8.72% and lifted total investor wealth by an impressive ₦10.7 trillion. The consistent gains suggest improving sentiment and a steady rotation into equities as investors position for value. Trading activity also strengthened notably, reflecting increased market participation and conviction behind the rally. Total volume traded surged by 40.33%, while transaction value jumped 50.95%, with approximately 1.87 billion shares exchanged across 92,353 deals, amounting to ₦104.29 billion. Overall, the market’s broad-based gains and rising activity levels point to strengthening liquidity conditions and sustained investor appetite, although pockets of weakness highlight ongoing sector rotation.
