RFA Breakfast Paper - June 24, 2026

Brent Falls Below $73 as Supply Concerns Fade and Market Structure Turns Bearish

Brent crude futures fell below $73 per barrel, extending losses for a fourth consecutive session and erasing all gains accumulated since the start of the Middle East conflict. The decline reflects growing confidence that diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran will lead to a lasting agreement and a normalization of global oil flows. The improving outlook has encouraged a greater number of tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with vessels increasingly operating openly and restoring confidence in maritime trade through the critical energy corridor. As a result, supply conditions have improved markedly across global oil markets. Additional downward pressure has come from a surge in crude availability from major exporting regions, including the Middle East and West Africa. Buyers are reportedly facing a significant increase in crude cargo offerings, reducing concerns about supply shortages that had previously supported prices. The market is also anticipating additional Iranian barrels following a temporary US waiver allowing purchases of already-loaded Iranian crude. This measure is expected to increase near-term supply availability even before a comprehensive agreement is finalized.

U.S. Stocks End Mixed as Falling Oil and Treasury Yields Offset Tech Weakness

The U.S. equities closed mixed on Wednesday as investors rotated away from technology stocks while finding support in easing energy prices and lower Treasury yields. The Nasdaq underperformed as weakness in semiconductor stocks persisted following the previous session's selloff, while the S&P 500 edged slightly lower. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished higher, supported by declining oil prices and improving sentiment in non-technology sectors. WTI crude fell more than 4% to around $70 per barrel, its lowest level since early March, as progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns over global oil supply disruptions. Lower energy prices also helped moderate inflation expectations, contributing to a decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.39% and providing support for broader market sentiment. Meanwhile, investors remained focused on Micron's earnings release after the closing bell, with the results expected to offer fresh insight into AI-related spending trends and determine whether elevated expectations across the semiconductor sector remain justified.

NGX Gives Up Recent Gains as Broad-Based Profit Taking Weighs on Sentiment

The Nigerian equity market reversed course on Wednesday, snapping its two-day winning streak as widespread profit-taking dragged key market indicators sharply lower. Investors locked in gains following recent price appreciation, triggering selling pressure across mid-cap and blue-chip stocks and weighing on overall market sentiment. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) fell by 5,668.65 basis points, or 2.35%, to close at 235,074.54, while market capitalization declined by ₦3.64 trillion to ₦150.85 trillion. The bearish sentiment extended across all major sectors, with the Industrial Goods sector recording the steepest loss of 8.31%. Trading activity also weakened as investors remained cautious following the recent rally. Total trading volume declined by 13.60% to 488.08 million shares, while the value of transactions fell 46.81% to ₦20.93 billion across 46,239 deals. Although the pullback interrupted the market's short-term recovery, it largely reflected profit-taking, with investors expected to watch for attractive buying opportunities in fundamentally strong stocks.