RFA Breakfast Paper - July 7, 2026

Brent Jumps as Renewed US-Iran Tensions Rekindle Supply Concerns

Brent crude futures surged toward $76 per barrel on Wednesday, rising more than 6% for the week, after the United States launched fresh air strikes against Iran and revoked a waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell crude oil on international markets. The escalation followed a series of attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, including a Qatari LNG carrier and a Saudi oil tanker, reigniting concerns over the security of one of the world's most important energy shipping routes. The renewed hostilities have placed the interim US-Iran peace agreement under significant strain and raised the risk of fresh disruptions to global oil supplies by discouraging shipowners and regional producers from using the strategic waterway. The latest developments represent a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of an emerging supply glut, which had been driven by higher OPEC+ production quotas and plans by Middle Eastern producers to ramp up output. With geopolitical risks once again dominating market sentiment, traders have shifted their focus back to the potential for renewed supply disruptions and heightened volatility in global energy markets.

U.S. Stocks Slip as Technology Weakness and Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Sentiment

U.S. equities closed lower on Tuesday as renewed weakness in technology stocks pressured broader market performance. Semiconductor shares led the decline, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index falling more than 4% after investors questioned whether the rapid pace of AI infrastructure spending can be sustained, despite Samsung Electronics reporting record second-quarter results. Outside the technology sector, defensive areas including health care, consumer staples, and utilities outperformed, each gaining more than 0.9% as investors rotated toward lower-risk assets. Market sentiment was further pressured by renewed geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran following a military flare-up in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed WTI crude oil prices nearly 5% higher. The rise in energy prices revived inflation concerns and contributed to higher Treasury yields, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbing to 4.56% and the 2-year yield rising to 4.18%. The session highlighted investors' cautious stance as they balanced uncertainty surrounding AI-related spending with the potential inflationary impact of higher oil prices.

NGX Extends Gains as Buying Interest Remains Strong

The Nigerian equity market closed higher for another session as sustained bargain hunting and renewed buying interest in recently moderated medium- and large-cap stocks continued to lift investor sentiment. Gains were broad-based across the market, with all five major sectors ending in positive territory. The Industrial Goods sector led the advance, rising 3.36%, followed by the Insurance (+1.18%), Oil & Gas (+0.60%), Consumer Goods (+0.49%), and Banking (+0.07%) sectors. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) gained 2,905.05 basis points, or 1.24%, to close at 237,083.28, while market capitalization increased by ₦1.86 trillion to ₦152.14 trillion. Despite the strong market performance, trading activity moderated during the session. Total trading volume declined by 8.35% to 493.67 million shares, while the value of transactions fell 27.59% to ₦28.02 billion across 49,969 deals. The decline in turnover suggests the rally was driven by selective buying rather than broad-based trading activity. Nevertheless, the continued advance across all major sectors points to improving investor confidence and sustained demand for fundamentally attractive stocks