RFA Breakfast Paper - July 6, 2026

Egypt's Non-Oil Private Sector Contracts at Fastest Pace in Over Three Years

The S&P Global PMI for Egypt fell to 46.0 in June 2026 from 47.1 in May, marking the sharpest contraction in the non-oil private sector in nearly three and a half years. Business conditions deteriorated as new orders declined at the fastest pace since November 2022, weighed down by weak liquidity, supply chain disruptions, raw material shortages, and the lingering effects of the Middle East conflict. The weakness extended across the economy, with output, purchasing activity, and employment all contracting, although the pace of job losses eased slightly from the previous month. Supply chain pressures remained elevated, with supplier delivery times lengthening further due to shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, shortages of key inputs, and higher fuel costs. On the price front, input cost and output price inflation moderated from May's near-record highs but remained elevated as businesses continued to face higher fuel, raw material, and wage expenses. Looking ahead, firms maintained a cautiously positive outlook, with business confidence remaining in positive territory despite easing slightly, supported by expectations of reduced geopolitical tensions and stronger government support.

U.S. Stocks Open the Week Higher as Services Sector Remains Resilient

U.S. equities began the week on a positive note on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing to a fresh record high as investors welcomed encouraging economic data. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield easing to around 4.47%, while WTI crude oil remained below $70 per barrel following OPEC+'s decision to increase output. The U.S. dollar also strengthened modestly against major currencies, reflecting continued confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy. Economic data released during the session showed the services sector remained on solid footing in June. The final S&P Global U.S. Services PMI rose to 51.2 from 50.7 in May, marking a third consecutive month of expansion as stronger new business supported activity. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI eased slightly to 54.0 from 54.5 but remained comfortably in expansion territory. Although business activity and new orders moderated, employment returned to growth, suggesting the services sector continues to support broader economic resilience despite persistent price pressures linked to tariffs and higher fuel costs.

NGX Opens the Week Stronger as Bargain Hunting Sparks Broad-Based Rally

The Nigerian equity market opened the new week on a strong note as renewed bargain hunting and buying interest in mid-cap and blue-chip stocks lifted investor sentiment across the major sectors. The broad-based rally was led by the Industrial Goods and Oil & Gas sectors, which advanced 4.89% and 4.22%, respectively, reflecting increased demand for fundamentally attractive stocks following recent market weakness. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) gained 4,937.89 basis points, or 2.15%, to close at 234,178.23, while market capitalization increased by ₦3.17 trillion to ₦150.27 trillion. The strong start to the week suggests investor confidence is gradually improving as buyers returned to the market. Market activity also strengthened, reinforcing the positive sentiment. Total trading volume rose by 18.40% to 538.64 million shares, while the value of transactions increased by 40.18% to ₦38.70 billion across 64,065 deals. The higher turnover indicates stronger market participation and renewed buying interest, with investors taking advantage of recent price corrections. If this momentum persists, it could provide further support for the market's short-term recovery.