RFA Breakfast Paper - April 4, 2026
Nigeria PMI Rises to 52.4, Growth Sustained Despite Cost Pressures
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI climbed to 52.4 in April 2026 from 51.9 in March, staying above the 50 threshold and signaling continued expansion in Nigeria’s private sector. Output growth remained solid, supported by stronger demand, though elevated fuel costs linked to Middle East tensions continued to weigh on the pace of activity. New orders increased further, driven by rising customer numbers, while sector performance was broadly positive, with expansion across most segments except services. Firms also raised employment slightly and continued to increase purchasing activity, with inventories growing at the fastest pace in five months as businesses secured inputs. Business sentiment improved, with firms planning expansion through new branches, market entry, and stock-building, although confidence remained cautious due to persistent cost pressures.
U.S. Equities Slide as Middle East Tensions Fuel Oil Surge
U.S. equities moved lower as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattled investor sentiment and triggered a broad risk-off tone across markets. Conflict between the U.S. and Iran intensified, with military actions centered around securing access to the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory missile strikes from Iran targeting the UAE. These developments heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supply, pushing WTI crude prices up by 3% to close at $105 per barrel. The spike in oil prices weighed on equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 1%, while relative strength in technology stocks helped cushion declines in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Simultaneously, the bond market reacted sharply to the inflationary implications of rising energy prices, driving yields higher and reshaping expectations for monetary policy. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed to 4.44%, reflecting a reassessment of the inflation and rate outlook. Markets are now pricing out any meaningful chance of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, reflecting concerns that sustained energy price pressures could keep inflation elevated.
Bargain Hunting Extends Rally as Nigerian Equities Open Month on a Firm Footing
The Nigerian equity market kicked off the new month with a confident advance, as buying interest carried over from the previous week and pushed prices higher. Investors actively accumulated positions in mid-cap and blue-chip stocks, sustaining the market’s bullish momentum and lifting key benchmarks. The All-Share Index climbed by 883.71 basis points, gaining 0.36% to close at 243,161.52, while market capitalization rose in tandem by ₦561.58 billion to settle at ₦156.56 trillion. This steady upward movement reflects improving sentiment and continued confidence in fundamentally sound counters, even as the broader macro backdrop remains mixed. However, beneath the surface strength, trading activity weakened notably, signalling a more selective participation profile. Total volume and value traded declined sharply by 48.30% and 57.96%, respectively, suggesting that the day’s gains were driven more by targeted accumulation than broad-based market engagement. Overall, the session reflects a market that remains upwardly biased, but increasingly dependent on strategic buying rather than widespread conviction, pointing to a cautiously optimistic near-term outlook.
