RFA Breakfast Paper - April 28, 2026
South Africa Leading Indicator Slips 0.5% in February
The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa edged down to 0.5% month-on-month in February 2026, from a revised 0.6% in January, pointing to slightly softer forward momentum. Gains in seven of ten components—notably residential building plans and the export commodity price index—were partly offset by declines in manufacturing orders and slower growth in job advertisements. Meanwhile, the coincident indicator rose 0.3% in January, supported by stronger industrial output and trade activity, suggesting current conditions remain stable. In contrast, the lagging indicator fell 0.3%, highlighting lingering weakness in backward-looking metrics.
U.S. Markets Dip as Tech Weakness and Rising Oil Prices Weigh on Sentiment
U.S. equity markets closed modestly lower on Tuesday, with the Nasdaq Composite underperforming the broader S&P 500. Pressure on technology stocks followed disappointing updates tied to OpenAI, which weighed on AI and data-center-linked stocks. At the same time, oil prices resumed their upward climb, with WTI crude oil rising more than 3.5% toward $100 amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Sector performance reflected this shift, as energy stocks and defensive areas like consumer staples posted gains, while technology lagged. In fixed income, Treasury yields edged slightly higher, with the 10-year yield ticking up to around 4.35%, signaling continued sensitivity to inflation and growth expectations. Despite the pullback, the broader market backdrop remains constructive. The S&P 500 has rebounded sharply from its late-March lows and continues to trade near record levels, supported by resilient economic data and improving corporate earnings outlooks.
NGX Rebounds as Industrial and Oil Stocks Drive Gains
The Nigerian equity market closed higher, reversing the previous session’s losses as renewed buying interest lifted key indicators. The NGX All-Share Index and market capitalization both advanced by 2.30%, supported by strong demand for mid-cap and bellwether stocks. Investors repositioned strategically, driving notable gains across key sectors, particularly industrial goods and oil & gas, which rose by 4.86% and 4.66% respectively. By the close, the benchmark index gained 5,137.90 points to settle at 228,740.19, while market capitalization increased by ₦3.31 trillion to ₦147.28 trillion, signalling a broad-based recovery across the exchange. Trading activity strengthened significantly, reinforcing the bullish tone of the session. Total volume traded surged by 33.88%, while transaction value jumped 54.61%, with 907.96 million shares exchanged in deals worth ₦68.24 billion across 72,886 transactions. The sharp rise in both volume and value suggests conviction behind the upward move, rather than a temporary rebound. Overall, the session reflects a return of positive sentiment, with investors actively re-entering the market after recent weakness.
