RFA Breakfast Paper - April 21, 2026
South Africa’s Business Confidence Drops to Five-Month Low
The South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry business confidence index in South Africa fell to 131.3 in March 2026 from 134.6 in February, marking its lowest level since October. The decline was largely driven by external pressures linked to the Middle East conflict, with businesses citing weaker foreign trade volumes and rising energy costs as key concerns. Additional drags included a weaker and more volatile rand, lower JSE equity prices, declining precious metal prices, and reduced export activity. These negatives were partly offset by lower inflation, improving new vehicle sales, and stronger tourism flows during the festive period. Despite the monthly drop, the Q1 2026 average rose to 132.4, up from 123.1 in Q1 2025, indicating that overall business sentiment remains stronger on a year-on-year basis, even as near-term risks weigh on confidence.
U.S. Stocks Slip as Geopolitical Tensions Overshadow Strong Consumer Spending
U.S. stocks closed lower on Tuesday as renewed geopolitical uncertainty outweighed positive economic data. Markets opened higher but reversed after reports that U.S.–Iran talks had paused, with a ceasefire set to expire soon. This pressured sentiment globally, with European markets also declining and economic expectations in the eurozone falling to their lowest since 2022. Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose and oil prices climbed to around $92 per barrel, reflecting heightened inflation and risk concerns.
Despite the pullback, economic data remained strong. Retail sales rose 1.7% in March, driven partly by higher gasoline prices, while core sales also beat expectations, signalling solid underlying demand. Additionally, private job growth showed continued improvement, pointing to a stable labour market. Overall, while geopolitical risks are weighing on markets, resilient consumer spending and steady employment continue to support the broader economic outlook.
NGX Market Edges Up Slightly as Investors Buy Value Stocks in Key Sectors
The Nigerian equity market recorded a modest gain today as investors selectively bought fundamentally strong, value-driven stocks, pushing key indicators into positive territory. The NGX All-Share Index increased by 135.97 basis points to close at 218,249.81, while market capitalization rose by ₦87.53 billion to settle at ₦140.52 trillion, both reflecting a 0.06% improvement. However, overall trading activity weakened, with total volume falling by 12.18% and total value traded declining by 7.34%. A total of 842.48 million shares worth ₦44.86 billion were exchanged across 61,617 deals, indicating a more cautious market mood. Sector performance was largely negative, as Banking (-1.30%), Consumer Goods (-0.37%), and Oil & Gas (-0.09%) recorded losses. In contrast, Industrial Goods (+1.64%) and Insurance (+0.19%) posted gains, helping to keep the market in positive territory. The session reflects a market driven by selective buying in value stocks rather than widespread confidence, suggesting investors remain cautious while positioning in fundamentally sound opportunities.
