RFA Breakfast Paper - April 20, 2026

Brent Slips Below $95 as Iran–US Talks Resume

Brent crude futures fell below $95 per barrel, trimming earlier gains as Iran signaled a renewed willingness to negotiate, sending a delegation to Islamabad for a second round of talks with the United States ahead of the current ceasefire deadline. The shift marks a departure from Tehran’s earlier stance against further discussions. However, uncertainty remains elevated. President Donald Trump indicated the truce is unlikely to be extended without a deal, adding that the Strait of Hormuz will remain blocked until an agreement is reached. The waterway remains central to negotiations, following renewed tensions over the weekend, including the seizure of an Iranian vessel by US forces and retaliatory actions by Tehran targeting shipping lanes. Key sticking points continue to include Iran’s nuclear program and broader regional conflicts, keeping markets sensitive to any shift in geopolitical risk and potential supply disruptions.

U.S. Markets Cautious but Stable as Middle East Tensions Weigh on Sentiment

U.S. equities edged lower at the start of the week as investors reacted to renewed geopolitical friction in the Middle East. Reports that Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to a U.S. naval blockade unsettled sentiment, but the market response remained measured. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both recorded modest declines, suggesting investors do not yet see the situation as a lasting disruption. Meanwhile, other asset classes painted a picture of cautious stability rather than panic. U.S. Treasury yields held steady, with the 10-year yield near 4.26% and the 2-year at 3.72%, indicating that fixed-income investors are not pricing in significant escalation risk. Overall, investors appear to be balancing short-term geopolitical risks against a broader expectation of de-escalation, keeping market moves relatively contained.

NGX Momentum Builds as Investors Lean into Banking Stocks

The Nigerian equity market opened the week on a positive trajectory, extending last week’s gains as investors intensified buying across key sectors. Demand for mid-cap and blue-chip stocks remained strong, with the banking sector driving much of the upside. The benchmark All-Share Index climbed by 0.39%, adding 848.21 points to close at 218,015.78. At the same time, market capitalization increased by ₦546.12 billion to reach ₦140.37 trillion, reflecting sustained investor confidence and continued bargain hunting in fundamentally sound equities. However, trading activity told a more cautious story beneath the surface. Total volume declined by 23.75%, while the value of trades dropped by 10.93%, suggesting that fewer transactions powered the market’s advance. Investors exchanged 959.29 million shares worth ₦48.41 billion across 75,297 deals. This contrast between rising prices and lower activity points to a market driven by selective positioning rather than broad participation, as institutional players and informed investors appear to be shaping the current upward movement.