RFA Breakfast Paper - April 10, 2026
South Africa Manufacturing Output Contracts for Fourth Straight Month
Manufacturing activity in South Africa declined 2.8% year-on-year in February 2026, worsening from a revised 0.1% drop in January and marking the fourth consecutive monthly contraction, as well as the sharpest decline since April 2025. The downturn was driven by weakness in food and beverages (-4.5%), wood, paper and publishing (-9.7%), and metals and machinery (-3.6%). On a month-on-month basis, output fell 2.2%, reversing a revised 1.9% increase in January, while production declined 2% over the three months to February compared to the previous period, highlighting sustained weakness in the industrial sector.
U.S. Stocks End Mixed as Geopolitics and Inflation Data Remain in Focus
U.S. equities finished mixed on Friday, capping a strong week overall as the recent relief rally paused amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Investor attention remained focused on developments involving Iran, with cautious optimism that the fragile ceasefire could pave the way for a broader peace agreement. The United States and Iran are scheduled to hold talks on Saturday, with markets watching closely to see whether Tuesday’s two-week ceasefire can evolve into a more durable arrangement. On the macro front, the latest inflation data reflected last month’s surge in energy prices. Headline inflation rose to 3.3% in March from 2.4%, as gasoline prices jumped 21% month-over-month, the largest increase since the series began in 1967. Although higher energy prices may continue to filter through the economy with a lag, the softer core readings challenge the narrative of persistent inflation. Under a base-case scenario where oil prices gradually normalize, markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a single rate cut in the second half of the year, which could help reinforce the recent stabilization in bond yields.
NGX Closes Week Higher as Buying Interest Supports Market
The Nigerian equity market closed the week in positive territory, with the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) and Market Capitalization both advancing by 0.30%. The uptick came despite negative market breadth, as sustained bargain hunting and renewed buying interest in select mid-cap and blue-chip stocks lifted the market across key sectors. Consequently, the ASI gained 608.61 basis points to close at 203,770.42, while Market Capitalization rose by ₦391.75 billion to ₦131.17 trillion. On a week-on-week basis, the market maintained a bullish tone, with the ASI increasing by 1.02% and investors’ wealth expanding by approximately ₦1.36 trillion.
