RFA Breakfast Paper - September 8, 2026

Oil Rally Lifts Nigeria’s Fiscal Outlook

Brent crude climbed 0.95% to $97.92 on Tuesday, briefly touching about $99 intraday, as fresh US–Iran strikes and Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities revived fears of prolonged Gulf supply disruptions. For Nigeria, where crude still anchors export earnings and government revenue, the move is a clear tailwind. Second-quarter GDP already showed the oil sector surging 7.31% year-on-year — it's fastest in years — on firmer prices and output near 1.72 million barrels per day, lifting headline growth to 4.43%. Prices sustained above the budget benchmark ease fiscal strain, support external reserves above $54 billion and underpin a naira that has firmed to roughly ₦1,322 per dollar. The risk runs both ways: a conflict-driven price spike also lifts imported fuel and freight costs, and with August CPI due 15 September, policymakers will watch whether energy pass-through interrupts the disinflation from July’s 15.43%.

Stocks Slip as Oil Spike Lifts Yields

U.S. equities opened the holiday-shortened week lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.58% to 7,673.52 and the Nasdaq Composite off 0.32% to 26,421.41; the Dow fell 1.18%. The retreat came as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil higher and 10-year Treasury yields up to about 4.80%, near two-year highs. Healthcare and financials led the declines while energy and technology outperformed. Investors turned cautious ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI, with markets pricing roughly a 60% chance of a 25bp Fed hike at the 15–16 September FOMC.

Banking Sell-Off Drags NGX Down 1.17%

The NGX All-Share Index fell 1.17% to 244,802.11 as a broad sell-off erased about ₦1.88 trillion in market value. Banking stocks led the retreat — the NGX Banking Index dropped 4.21% to 2,506.90 — while the NGX 30 shed 1.12% to 9,009.50. Breadth was sharply negative, with 63 decliners to just four advancers, pointing to broad profit-taking rather than stock-specific news after a strong year-to-date run. Heavyweights MTN Nigeria, FirstHoldco and Zenith Bank weighed most on the index, while insurers Sovereign Trust, Veritas Kapital and Sunu Assurances were among the steepest fallers. It reversed Monday’s 0.29% gain.