RFA Breakfast Paper - September 29, 2026
Brent Holds Near $96 as Middle East Oil Flows Recover
Brent crude remained around $96 per barrel on Wednesday following a sharp decline in the previous session, as improving Middle Eastern energy flows and a further release of US emergency reserves eased near-term supply concerns. The 10-day average of crude exports from the region has recovered to 17.5 million barrels per day, around 98% of pre-war levels, supported by Saudi Arabia’s resumption of crude exports through its East-West pipeline at roughly half capacity and continued shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. In the US, plans to release up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are also expected to provide additional supply, while industry data showed US crude inventories increased by 1 million barrels last week. Despite the improvement in physical flows, Brent remains on track for a third consecutive monthly gain as the prolonged US-Iran conflict and broader supply disruptions continue to support a significant geopolitical risk premium.
Stocks Dip as Consumer Confidence Slumps
The S&P 500 slipped 0.16% to 7,671.19 on Tuesday after the Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to a 12-year low, rattling sentiment across rate-sensitive sectors. The Dow shed 0.3% while the Nasdaq dipped 0.09% as mega-cap tech absorbed rotational flows — Microsoft extended its strongest quarterly run in 28 years on AI enterprise demand. FICO plunged 21.57% after FHFA dropped credit-score requirements for agency-backed mortgages, while Carnival surged 11.65% on a Q3 earnings beat. The 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 5.25%, just below 2007 highs, keeping a potential October hike firmly in view.
Banks Drag NGX as Profit-Taking Returns
The NGX All-Share Index fell 0.29% to 251,913.20 on Tuesday, trimming ₦469 billion from aggregate market capitalisation to ₦163.53 trillion, as profit-taking resumed after Monday's record session. Banking stocks led the decline, with the sector index dropping 0.91% to 2,727.81; GTCO shed 3.28% and BUA Cement lost 3.10% on institutional selling, while breadth was negative at 27 gainers against 32 losers. Turnover slumped 46% to 549 million shares as investors pulled back. The NGX 30 index, however, edged up 0.20% to 9,296.51 on selective blue-chip demand, keeping the year-to-date return above 61%. NPF Microfinance and LivingTrustMortgage each rose 10% to lead gainers.
