RFA Breakfast Paper - September 25, 2026

Brent Crude Rebounds as Hormuz Risks Persist

Brent crude rose on Monday, recovering from the previous session as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz renewed supply concerns. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the critical waterway, raising the rise of further delays to the restoration of regional oil flows, although he indicated that negotiations could resume this week. Tehran said it was awaiting a definitive US response to its seven-day reopening proposal and would not soften its conditions following Washington’s rejection. Broader regional tensions also remained elevated after Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones and a missile targeting areas near key energy facilities. Meanwhile, the prospect of US restrictions on diesel exports adds another layer of uncertainty to global fuel markets as policymakers seek to contain elevated domestic prices. The combination of stalled diplomatic progress, persistent regional tensions and continued disruption risks is keeping a significant geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.

U.S. Equity Markets Rise as Oil Prices Ease on Hormuz Outlook

U.S. equity markets closed higher on Friday as Treasury yields stabilized and oil prices declined, helping ease pressure on risk assets. Durable goods orders were unchanged in August, while core capital goods orders rose 1.6% month-on-month, pointing to continued strength in underlying business investment. Oil prices also fell amid reports that Iran proposed a seven-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume negotiations with the U.S., raising hopes of reduced geopolitical pressure on energy markets. Lower oil prices also provided some relief to Treasury markets after a volatile week that pushed the 10-year yield to its highest level since 2007. The 10-year Treasury yield closed slightly lower at 5.17%, while the 2-year yield fell to 4.85%. The easing in yields and oil prices supported Friday’s gains, although borrowing costs remained elevated and continued to pose a key consideration for equity markets.

NGX Closes Friday Lower but Posts Weekly Gain

The Nigerian equity market closed the week marginally lower, with the NGX-ASI and Market Capitalization both declining 0.01%. Profit-taking in selected recently appreciated mid-cap and blue-chip stocks outweighed the broader strength, despite advancers outnumbering decliners. The NGX-ASI fell 36.60 basis points to close at 252,113.41, while Market Capitalization declined by ₦23.77 billion to ₦163.66 trillion. Despite the negative Friday close, the market maintained a positive week-on-week performance, with the NGX-ASI gaining 0.92% and investors’ wealth increasing by approximately ₦1.50 trillion. Trading volume fell 27.54%, while value traded rose 16.31%, with 708.85 million units worth ₦58.35 billion exchanged across 42,496 deals. Sector performance was mixed, as Insurance, Industrial Goods and Consumer Goods posted marginal gains, while Banking and Oil & Gas declined.