RFA Breakfast Paper - October 23, 2026

Nigeria’s Net FX Flows Hit $22.5bn in Q2

Nigeria’s net foreign exchange flows rose to $22.50 billion in Q2 2026 from $21.33 billion in Q1, the highest quarterly level since Q4 2019 ($25.08 billion), according to the CBN’s Q2 2026 Statistical Bulletin. The gain came from a sharper fall in outflows, to $8.93 billion from $11.05 billion, than in inflows, which eased to $31.43 billion from $32.39 billion. Monthly net flows rose through the quarter, from $6.53 billion in April to $7.91 billion in May and $8.06 billion in June. Autonomous sources supplied most inflows ($23.30 billion over the quarter), and portfolio investment rose 45% to $6.51 billion. For investors, stronger net flows support naira stability and the CBN’s reserve position, but the reliance on portfolio money rather than FDI leaves the FX market exposed if global risk appetite weakens or oil-driven inflation lifts U.S. yields.

Oil Spike Pulls S&P 500 Down 0.52%

U.S. stocks fell on Friday as oil replaced AI as the market’s main concern. The S&P 500 lost 0.52% to 7,623.68 and the Dow dropped 1.23%, while the Nasdaq slipped only 0.21% to 25,955.34 as chip stocks steadied after Thursday’s rout. Fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia lifted Brent 3.14% to $116.72, its highest settlement since 29 April, and energy (+2.60%) was the only clear sector gainer. One-year inflation expectations rose to 4.7% and the 10-year yield rose 4bps to 5.00%, adding to inflation risk for the Fed.

Dangote Cement, Banks Lift NGX 0.92%

The NGX All-Share Index rose 2,265.33 points, or 0.92%, to 247,222.27 on Friday, its highest close of the week, as market capitalisation gained ₦1.47 trillion to ₦160.52 trillion. Dangote Cement and First HoldCo both hit the 10.00% daily limit, closing at ₦1,111.00 and ₦144.10; First HoldCo followed a 60.84% rise in nine-month pre-tax profit to ₦911.24 billion. Fidelity Bank (+9.09%) helped lift the NGX Banking Index 2.57%, while Aradel (-6.33%) pulled the Oil & Gas Index down 2.51%. Volume rose 69.57% to 611.7 million shares in 33,540 deals. Gains were concentrated in large caps, so breadth across the wider market remains the test.