RFA Breakfast Paper - October 14, 2026
Fuel Costs Test Nigeria’s Disinflation
Nigeria’s September CPI is due from the NBS today, and analysts expect the three-month disinflation run to stall. FMDA Research forecasts headline inflation rising to 15.65% from August’s 15.39%, while Meristem sees 15.40%. The pressure is fuel: Dangote’s petrol gantry price averaged ₦1,311 a liter in September, about 10.2% above August, and diesel climbed to ₦1,850 from ₦1,670 as crude rallied. A firmer naira, which averaged ₦1,327.31/$ against ₦1,352.97 in August, offsets part of the pass-through. External buffers remain solid: the CBN put gross reserves at about $55.1 billion on 9 October after correcting an erroneous $58.81 billion print. For investors, a higher reading would narrow the real-rate cushion left by September’s 350bp cut in the MPR to 23% and temper hopes of further easing, a key support for equities and Nigeria’s euro bonds.
Hot CPI Drives Worst Stock Day Since July
U.S. stocks had their worst day since July on Wednesday after September CPI ran hotter than expected: headline inflation reached 3.7% year-on-year against 3.6% forecast, and core rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2%. The S&P 500 fell 1.11%, the Nasdaq 1.88% and the Russell 2000 1.93%, while the Dow slipped 0.09%. Technology dropped 3.00% as rate-hike fears hit AI names, while health care (+2.44%) and staples (+2.21%) rose. Bank of America fell on a profit miss. The 10-year yield touched 5.33% before a haven bid pulled it back to 5.19%, 2.7bps lower on the day.
NGX Rebounds on Oil and Banking Gains
The NGX All-Share Index rose 0.06% to 247,673.65 on Wednesday, ending a two-session losing run, as market capitalisation gained ₦103.90 billion to ₦160.81 trillion. Oil & Gas led sector gains, its index up 0.57% as Aradel Holdings rose 1.67% to ₦1,400. The Banking Index recovered 0.14% to 2,550.65 on gains in Wema Bank (+2.65%), Access Holdings (+1.43%) and GTCO (+0.23%), and the NGX 30 added 0.06%. Consumer Goods (-0.23%) lagged on Nigerian Breweries (-1.32%). Austin Laz (+10.00%) led gainers; UPDC REIT (-9.96%) led losers. Volume fell 20.11% to 314.90 million shares across 30,922 deals as investors held back ahead of today’s CPI print.
