RFA Breakfast Paper - October 1, 2026
Brent Rebounds Above $102 as US-Iran Tensions Raise Supply Risks
Brent crude traded above $102 per barrel on Friday after rising for a second consecutive session, as reports of a potential further US military buildup in the Middle East heightened concerns over renewed disruptions to regional energy supplies. The Pentagon is preparing to deploy an additional aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Persian Gulf, providing additional military options as President Donald Trump weighs a possible resumption of large-scale strikes against Iran. The escalation risk comes despite Middle Eastern crude flows having largely recovered toward pre-war levels, with markets questioning whether the recovery can be sustained without a durable agreement to end the conflict. Recent attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and continued strikes on regional energy infrastructure are reinforcing those concerns. With diplomatic uncertainty persisting alongside the risk of renewed military escalation, the geopolitical premium in crude remains elevated.
US Stocks Edge Higher as PCE Cools
US equities drifted higher on October 1 as the S&P 500 gained 0.20% to 7,666.71 and the Nasdaq added 0.04% to 26,871.60. The August core PCE deflator came in cooler than expected at 3.0% annually, though Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari warned that inflation remains too high. Accenture surged 21.4% after a strong Q4 beat and FY2027 guidance, while Synopsys jumped 12.3% on a $1bn Amazon partnership. The Russell 2000 fell 0.39%, reflecting continued dispersion between large-cap tech and the broader market.
NGX Slides as Banking Stocks Weigh
The NGX All-Share Index fell 0.28% to 251,211.67 on September 30, shedding ₦426bn in market capitalisation to ₦163.10 trillion, as the market was closed on October 1 for Nigeria’s Independence Day. Banking stocks led the decline, with the sector index dropping 0.58% to 2,712.10—Fidelity Bank fell 6.07% and GTCO lost 3.28%—while the NGX 30 eased 0.31% to 9,241.53. Insurance stocks also weakened, with the sector index down 1.01%. On the positive side, industrials gained 0.66% and market breadth was nearly flat at 28 losers versus 25 gainers. Trading volume surged 83% to 1.0 billion shares worth ₦53.6bn, led by activity in VFD Group.
