RFA Breakfast Paper - June 26, 2026

Brent Declines, but Strait of Hormuz Risks Keep Upside Intact

Brent crude fell to $72.60 per barrel on Friday but could reverse course as tensions between the US and Iran continue to threaten supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The two sides exchanged fresh attacks after Iran targeted a container ship on Thursday, prompting US retaliatory strikes the next day. Washington launched another round of attacks on Saturday after Tehran struck a vessel carrying Qatari oil. Despite the escalation, both countries have agreed to suspend further military action ahead of peace talks in Doha on Tuesday, where officials will discuss the Strait of Hormuz and broader de-escalation efforts. Shipping traffic through the waterway has gradually recovered since the interim peace agreement, although vessel operators remain cautious with hundreds of ships still delayed in the Persian Gulf. While the ceasefire has weighed on oil prices, any breakdown in negotiations or renewed disruption to Hormuz transit could quickly push Brent higher given the waterway's critical role in global oil exports.

U.S. Stocks End Lower as Technology Weakness Overshadows Defensive Strength

U.S. equity markets closed slightly lower on Friday, recovering from steeper losses earlier in the session as investors rotated into defensive sectors. Health care led the market with gains of more than 3%, helping limit broader declines, while technology and industrial stocks remained under pressure. The technology sector ended the week down roughly 5%, reflecting continued investor caution following recent weakness in semiconductor and AI-related names. Throughout the week,

markets also digested announcements from Apple and Microsoft regarding price increases on selected hardware products amid rising memory costs, raising concerns that higher prices could weigh on consumer demand and slow hardware sales. Outside of technology, market performance remained relatively resilient, with small- and mid-cap U.S. stocks posting modest gains for the week. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending the session near 4.37%, while WTI crude oil settled around $69 per barrel. Lower yields and easing energy prices continued to support the broader inflation outlook, helping stabilize investor sentiment despite the weakness in technology stocks.

NGX Ends the Week Lower as Profit Taking Extends Market Decline

The Nigerian equity market closed the week on a negative note, extending its losing streak to a third consecutive session as widespread profit-taking continued to weigh on medium- and large-cap stocks. Selling pressure spread across all major sectors, with the Oil & Gas and Insurance sectors recording the steepest declines of 4.66% and 2.23%, respectively. Consequently, the NGX All-Share Index (ASI) fell by 1,531.81 basis points, or 0.66%, to close at 232,049.02, while market capitalization declined by ₦982.96 billion, also down 0.66%, to settle at ₦148.91 trillion. Although the market rallied earlier in the week, persistent selling pressure erased those gains, leaving the NGX-ASI down 1.65% week-on-week and reducing investors' wealth by approximately ₦2.42 trillion. Trading activity also moderated during the session, reflecting a more cautious approach from investors. Total trading volume declined by 1.26% to 388.69 million shares, while

the value of transactions fell by 4.07% to ₦18.43 billion across 44,631 deals. The sustained weakness suggests investors remain focused on locking in profits, although improved valuations could encourage renewed buying interest in fundamentally strong stocks in the sessions ahead.