RFA Breakfast Paper - July 13, 2026

Brent Rallies as Renewed US-Iran Clashes Revive Supply Concerns

Brent crude futures climbed about 4% to around $79 per barrel on Monday, snapping a two-day losing streak after renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran reignited concerns over global oil supplies. The US launched its fourth air strike in a week against Iran on Sunday in response to an Iranian attack on a Cyprus-flagged container ship, further escalating tensions in the region. Tehran subsequently declared that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed "until further notice," although the claim was rejected by US Central Command. The renewed hostilities have reversed part of the sharp decline in oil prices seen after the interim US-Iran peace agreement, which had raised expectations of increased Middle Eastern crude exports and a reopening of the strategic shipping route. The latest escalation has also diminished hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, with Iran insisting that Washington must first honor previous commitments regarding Hormuz transit and the normalization of Iranian oil exports before negotiations can resume. As a result, geopolitical risk has once again become the dominant driver of oil markets, supporting prices amid renewed fears of supply disruptions.

U.S. Geopolitical tensions drive risk-off sentiment as investors shift toward defensive sectors

U.S. equity markets ended Monday lower as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East dampened investor risk appetite. Sentiment weakened after the United States launched additional military strikes on Iranian targets over the weekend, prompting retaliatory attacks by Iran on U.S. facilities across several Gulf countries. Adding to market concerns, President Trump announced plans to reinstate a blockade on Iranian shipping, fueling fears of supply disruptions that pushed oil prices and Treasury yields higher. Against this backdrop, investors rotated into defensive sectors, with utilities and consumer staples leading gains alongside energy stocks, which benefited from the surge in crude prices. Conversely, technology stocks underperformed, dragging the broader market lower. Technology shares remained under pressure, particularly semiconductor stocks, as investors questioned whether the current pace of AI-related infrastructure spending can be sustained. Looking ahead, investors will focus on major bank earnings and the June CPI report, both of which could shape expectations for the economic outlook and the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.

NGX opens the week lower as profit-taking extends market losses

The Nigerian equity market opened the week in negative territory, extending losses from the previous session as profit-taking in recently appreciated mid-cap and blue-chip stocks weighed on investor sentiment. The NGX All-Share Index declined 0.84% (2,049.65 basis points) to close at 241,749.11, while market capitalization fell by ₦1.32 trillion to ₦155.13 trillion. Selling pressure was broad-based, with the Industrial Goods and Insurance sectors leading the decline. Despite the market's weak performance, trading activity improved as investors remained active. Total trading volume rose 18.64% to 523.54 million shares, while transaction value increased 14.81% to ₦22.75 billion, across 59,945 deals. The stronger turnover suggests bargain hunting helped offset some selling pressure, although investor sentiment remained cautious amid continued profit-taking.