RFA Breakfast Paper - April 16, 2026

Brent Slips Toward $98 on Ceasefire Hopes, Hormuz Risks Persist

Brent crude futures eased toward $98 per barrel, giving back recent gains as optimism grew around a potential resolution to the conflict involving Iran. Donald Trump said Tehran had accepted terms including abandoning nuclear ambitions, resuming oil flows, and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although Iranian authorities have yet to confirm. He also announced a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, confirmed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Despite the diplomatic signals, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut due to a dual blockade by the United States and Iran, sustaining concerns over global supply disruptions. Adding to the cautious tone, Fatih Birol warned that restoring a meaningful share of disrupted oil and gas output could take up to two years, suggesting prolonged tightness in energy markets.

U.S. Stocks Hit Record Highs as Strong Earnings and Global Data Support Markets

U.S. equity markets closed higher on Thursday, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite finishing at record highs. International markets were mixed, as Asian equities advanced overnight following stronger-than-expected first-quarter GDP data from China, while European markets ended the session with mixed performances. On the macroeconomic front, U.S. labor market data remained resilient, with initial jobless claims declining to 207,000 last week. Meanwhile, industrial production fell 0.5% in March, although output still expanded at a solid 2.4% annualized pace during the first quarter. In fixed income markets, yields on U.S. Treasury securities edged higher, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.31% and the 2-year yield at 3.78%.

NGX Extends Rally as Oil & Gas and Banking Stocks Lead Gains

The Nigerian equity market closed today’s trading session on a bullish note, with the NGX All-Share Index (NGX-ASI) and Market Capitalization both advancing by 1.23%. The rally reflected strong positive market sentiment as investors continued positioning through sustained buying interest in medium and large-cap stocks such as ARADEL, OANDO, ACCESSCORP, and MTNN across major sectors, despite inflation rising to 15.38%. For the third consecutive session, gains were primarily driven by the Oil & Gas and Banking sectors, which rose by 4.76% and 2.49%respectively. Consequently, the benchmark index climbed 2,583.60 basis points to close at 211,912.38, while Market Capitalization increased by ₦1.66 trillion to settle at ₦136.44 trillion.