Global Weekly Fixed Income Report - July 10, 2026

Executive Summary

The week ended 10 July 2026 was defined by a bearish repricing in U.S. rates, a mostly parallel upward shift in the Treasury curve, and a notable divergence between higher risk-free rates and tighter African sovereign G-spreads. U.S. Treasury yields rose across most of the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year yields each up 8 bps, while the 30-year yield rose 7 bps, leaving the 2s10s spread broadly unchanged at roughly 35 bps. This is best characterized as a parallel bear shift with mild long-end flattening, rather than a

clean steepener or flattener.

The macro impulse was inflation-sensitive: energy prices rose during the week, with Brent crude increasing from $71.99 to $76.01. Renewed Gulf/Iran tension and concerns that sustained energy pressure could complicate the Fed’s policy path. Trump stated that the strait of Hormuz remains open despite Iran saying it is closed.

Risk appetite in credit remained more resilient than the move in core rates would

normally suggest. Investment-grade corporate spreads tightened by approximately 2 bps, while high-yield spreads tightened by approximately 18 bps in the prior weekly window, and African Eurobond G-spreads tightened across Ghana, Nigeria, Angola, Egypt, and South Africa on average.

Portfolio implication: the market is paying investors to remain selective rather than

defensive across all risk assets. Duration should be concentrated in intermediate

maturities where carry remains attractive, while long-end exposure should be managed actively given the continued sensitivity of term premia to inflation, oil, and Treasury supply. In African sovereigns, spread compression supports maintaining exposure, but the strongest risk-adjusted opportunities are in credits where G-spread tightening has been supported by outright yield declines rather than merely higher Treasury benchmarks.