Global Monthly Fixed Income Report - June, 2026

Executive Summary

The first half of 2026 was defined by the collision of three forces: rising inflation, resilient growth, and geopolitical shocks. Global fixed income did not trade as a simple “rate-cut” asset class. Instead, markets differentiated sharply across regions, maturities, and credit quality. June also fitted into the broader H1 narratives.

The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in June and

emphasized that inflation remained above its 2% objective, while economic activity was expanding at a solid pace. The ECB, by contrast, raised key rates by 25bps in June, citing Middle East-related energy inflation pressure. The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, but with two MPC members voting for a hike, underscoring the asymmetry of inflation risk.

African sovereign Eurobonds delivered a highly differentiated month. Average G-spreads widened in Nigeria (+29.4bps), Angola (+21.1bps), Ghana (+11.1bps), and South Africa (+4.5bps), while Egypt tightened by 4.4bps on average.

The message for portfolios is clear: carry remains valuable, but credit beta should be selective. We would favor sovereigns where spread compensation is supported by improving external buffers, credible policy anchors, and positive technical demand, while reducing exposure to names where spread widening is being driven by deteriorating risk premia rather than Treasury curve effects.