Global Equities Report - September 11, 2026

Executive Summary

Reporting period: Monday 7 – Friday 11 September 2026.

The oil shock became a policy shock. August CPI printed on Friday at 3.4% year on year with core up 0.3% on the month, a tenth above consensus, and the ECB raised its deposit rate 25 basis points to 2.50% the same morning. By Friday's close interest-rate futures implied roughly a 90% probability of a Federal Reserve hike at the 16 September meeting. The two-year Treasury yield rose 24 basis points across the four U.S. sessions to 4.63% and the ten-year 16 basis points to 4.96%.

Equities repriced the discount rate, not the earnings. The S&P 500 fell 0.80%, the Nasdaq 0.66% and the Dow 1.57% — modest headline moves that conceal a violent rotation beneath them. Utilities lost 2.44% and Materials 1.91%, while Communication Services gained 0.97% and Energy 0.57%, the only two sectors to rise. What sold was anything valued off the risk-free rate or exposed to the cost of energy; what held was the sector generating the inflation and the cheapest sector in the index.

Outside the United States the repricing was heavier because the policy moves were real rather than expected. The STOXX 600 fell 1.66% and the DAX 1.68% on the ECB's hike, and the Nikkei 225 lost 3.60% — the worst major market — as the Bank of Japan moved into view for a 25 basis point increase to 1.25%. The yen was the only major currency to gain against the dollar, up 0.46%.