Feb 2nd Breakfast Paper
Nigeria’s PMI Slips Below 50 as Demand Softens
The Stanbic IBTC Bank Nigeria PMI fell to 49.7 in January 2026 from 53.5 in December, dipping below the 50-point mark and signaling broadly weaker business conditions after more than a year of expansion.
New orders stagnated following a 14-month growth streak, limiting output to only marginal gains as demand softened at the start of the year.
Purchasing activity and input stocks also increased at slower rates, especially in wholesale and retail, while agriculture, manufacturing, and services still recorded modest growth.
Employment continued to edge higher for an eighth straight month, helping firms reduce backlogs. On the price front, cost pressures intensified. Purchase prices and staff costs both rose more quickly, prompting companies to lift selling prices at the fastest pace in four months, though inflation remained mild compared with post-pandemic peaks. Despite the slowdown, companies remained cautiously optimistic, expecting demand and activity to recover in the months ahead.
Markets Rise on Monday Despite Partial U.S.
Government Shutdown
A partial U.S. government shutdown took effect Saturday morning after funding bills for six federal agencies were not signed into law. Over the weekend, the Senate passed a bipartisan funding bill to fully finance five of the six agencies and extended funding for the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks to allow further negotiations, but the bill still requires approval by the House of Representatives, with a vote expected tomorrow. U.S. equity markets largely shrugged off the shutdown uncertainty, trading higher on Monday. The better-than-expected January ISM Manufacturing PMI reading helped support investor sentiment and lifted all three major averages.
The upbeat data also put modest upward pressure on bond markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to about 4.28%, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, with the ICE U.S. Dollar Index advancing roughly 0.7%.
Nigerian Equities Edge Higher as Oil & Gas Strength Offsets Broad Weakness
The Nigerian equity market opened the new trading week on a mildly positive note, as key market performance indicators (the NGX-ASI and Market Capitalization) both advanced by 0.01%. The modest uptick reflected cautious investor sentiment and selective bargain hunting in fundamentally strong medium- and large-cap stocks such as ARADEL, STANBIC, WEMABANK, and FCMB. Sector performance was mixed, with the Oil & Gas sector providing the strongest support after gaining 2.00%. Consequently, the All-Share Index added 13.18 basis points to close at 165,383.58, while Market Capitalization increased by ₦9.11 billion to settle at ₦106.16 trillion.
